Over the past several days, ArenaNet have graced the Guild Wars 2 community with several teasers, each consisting of a monochromatic icon placed over a purple and orange hexagon, itself placed over a faded-out piece of new concept art. These cryptic teasers have been accompanied by a countdown to what we can safely assume will be a major announcement regarding the next expansion on the 15th.
As we wait for that announcement, the community has been left to try and decipher the meaning of these teasers in the meantime. I myself made an article just a couple days ago where I analyzed the first of these teasers; we've since gotten two more. There have been a lot of theories of greatly varying quality, and since we likely won't be getting a fourth teaser for several days, I figured I would throw my hat back into the ring to help temper the community's expectations.
This analysis will focus almost entirely on the icons themselves and what they likely represent. If you're interested in the details gleaned from the background art, take a look at my previous article; all three teasers have used the same art, so I won't be going over it again here.
This article has been adapted to a YouTube video. Check it out if you'd prefer a video format!
EDIT: The fourth teaser came much sooner than expected! It isn't mentioned in this article because I genuinely wasn't expecting it to come until Monday, but it seems like the team are back to posting a new teaser every other day. There are a lot of points throughout this article where I say something like "this will be disproven once we get a 4th teaser", so keep in mind if you're reading this now that they're already disproven.
The fourth teaser is of a hand of cards, presumably for a "gambler" type spec. The leading theory is that it will go to Thief; if that's true, Assassin is probably not making the cut.
They're Almost Certainly Elite Specs, Guys
Whether it's because they're simply against the idea of more elite specs, because they're hoping for something more unique or ambitious, or because they're nobly attempting to nobly avoid making assumptions, I have seen many people disregard the Occam's Razor explanation for these teasers. I myself fit into the first category—I personally didn't think we should ever get a fourth set of specs—but even I have to admit that at this point, it's practically all but confirmed that that's exactly what we're getting.
When the first teaser dropped, many were quick to point out that the hexagon motif used is strongly associated with specializations. Teasing new specs by revealing their icons is also a marketing strategy that ANet has used before in EoD. Plus, there are only so many things in the game that would warrant having icons like these. Everything points pretty clearly to the idea that a new set of elite specs is being teased. I will admit that there are a couple of options that are still technically possible, especially since only three icons have been teased, but none really compete with specs in terms of likelihood.
As elite specs are by far the most likely option, I'm going to spend the rest of this section addressing all the other theories I've seen and explaining why they aren't likely. If that doesn't interest you, skip straight to the next section, where I'll provide some theories as to what exactly these specs are—and share some secret hints you probably aren't aware of.
New Weapon(s)
When the first teaser image dropped, one of the popular theories was that it might actually be a completely new weapon type, the lute. Of course, this theory immediately went out the window when the second teaser came out. Not much more to say on this one.
New Professions
Some have theorized that, rather than a new set of elite specializations, the teasers might represent completely new classes. I addressed this theory in my previous article, where I claimed that a class would likely be way more work than elite specs; after thinking on it more, I have reneged somewhat on that idea. If the new class didn't have elite specs—or, more likely, only had one—I could potentially see it being less work since it wouldn't impact the balance of existing classes at all; it could be managed somewhat in a vacuum.
Of course, we now have three icons, which would indicate we're getting three entirely new classes. That does solve one of the issues I pointed out before—that a single new class would disrupt the balance between the three armor weights—but it brings along new problems as well. I could maybe, theoretically see three new classes being possible to pull off, maybe. But we have 11 days left in the countdown, and it seems like there are more teasers still to come. I definitely don't think a fourth class would be doable, and, of course, any number that's not a multiple of 3 would ruin the armor weight balance again.
There is another point against these icons being full classes: the second icon. It depicts a helmet with wings, which is incredibly similar to the warrior icon. It would simply be an objectively poor design choice to have two core classes with such similar icons; I highly doubt ANet would do that.
Overall, most of my other points in the original article still apply here, so go read that if you want my complete thoughts on the possibility of new classes. At this point, I think three new classes is technically possible but incredibly unlikely; I also strongly believe that this theory will be instantly disproven when we get a fourth teaser on the 7th.
Multiclassing
I have seen some argue that multiclassing is a possibility. That is not true.
Firstly, multiclassing as a concept simply would not function in Guild Wars 2—on a mechanical, balancing, or programming level. Something of that complexity can't be thrown onto an existing game willy-nilly; it needs to be designed for it from the ground-up. Multiclassing would present the biggest balancing nightmare imaginable, it would be filled with an absurd number of bugs and oversights, and, ultimately, it probably wouldn't even be that enjoyable to use, since none of the game's existing specs were designed with it in mind.
With all of that said, I am quite confident in saying multiclassing will never come to Guild Wars 2. I am even more confident in saying it isn't what these teasers are teasing, because multiclassing as a system wouldn't require new icons like this—and even if they did decide to use icons for the class combos (which would be an absurd decision), one of the icons certainly wouldn't be something as completely irrelevant to all the existing specs as a lute.
Long story short: we are definitely not getting multiclassing. I'm genuinely not even sure how it snuck its way into the conversation.
Hybrid-Weight Profession(s)
One of the main arguments I and others have presented against the icons teasing new full classes is that any number of new classes not in a multiple of three would disrupt the balance of classes per armor weight. A counterargument I've seen to this is that we could potentially get a class that is capable of wearing multiple different armor weights. This is an interesting idea, but it completely falls apart once you start to consider the details.
There are two main issues with the concept of a hybrid-weight class. The first is that most armor skins are designed differently at different weights, and there would be a ton of clipping issues from skins that were never meant to be used together; this would likely also require ANet to alter the wardrobe UI to differentiate between different weights, and we all know how loathe they are to make any changes to the spaghetti code that makes up the GW2 UI.
The second main issue, and the more prominent one, is that a hybrid-weight class would functionally just be a heavy class. In games where you can choose between multiple armor weights, the stats of each weight are designed with that fact in mind. There are advantages and disadvantages baked into each weight to balance them. Guild Wars 2 was not built with any such idea in mind, so its armor weights have no such balancing. The only inherent stat difference between the armor weights is the amount of defense they grant, and heavy armor grants the most. This would, therefor, make heavy armor the objectively correct option in all scenarios, thus completely defeating the purpose of even making a hybrid-weight class in the first place.
Armor Class Specializations
Another idea I've seen thrown around is that the three icons we've seen could be elite specializations—or just standard specializations—that are shared by all three classes of each armor weight.
The obvious issue with this idea is that a single spec concept probably wouldn't align with all three classes of each weight very well. With the adventurers—the three medium classes—in particular, there's very little tying them together thematically. To make the spec actually useful, the skills and/or traits would also likely need to be very different on each of the three specs that could use it, thereby making them not much different than normal elite specs.
Of course, this idea is among those that will go out the window immediately if/when a fourth icon is teased, so I don't think much more needs to be said on it.
Generic Specializations
The final theory I'll address here is the idea that we are getting nine new specializations, but that they are just standard specializations rather than elite specs. I find this to be the most plausible alternative—largely because it's the most similar to the obvious solution—but I have my issues with this idea as well.
The first issue with this idea is the content of the teasers themselves. We've received several icons clearly reminiscent of those used for other elite specs; in contrast, standard specializations don't really have associated icons in the same way. One could argue that the teased icons aren't actually icons that will be used in-game, but instead representations of each new specialization's theming. If you ask me, that just sounds like ANet setting themselves up for disappointment, if it's really the case.
That brings us to the second point. As mentioned numerous times above, these icons belonging to new elite specs is the Occam's Razor solution to this mystery. It's the conclusion the majority of players will reach automatically without putting much thought into it. If that turns out to not be the case, many players will be disappointed—especially if the solution actually turns out to be generic specs instead, since that would feel like a direct downgrade from what players were expecting.
Finally, the first teaser poses a serious issue for this theory, as well. The second and third are generic enough that you could convince me they were just vague representations of some new core specialization, but the lute? The lute icon very clearly implies some sort of bard spec, and there aren't any classes in game that that concept could slot into neatly as just a standard spec; it's the sort of concept that could really only be executed as an elite spec.
Okay, They're Elite Specs. But What Are They?
That's a wonderful, if confusingly-worded, question. Worry not, my dear reader; I shall update you on the latest theories as to what exactly these three elite specs could actually be. I have seen two particularly interesting theories as to a "theme" the specs could all be following, so let's discuss each.
Old/Discontinued Classes
One prominent theory is that this round of elite specs is aiming to introduce old/discontinued classes to the game. By "discontinued classes", I'm primarily referring to the old classes from the original Guild Wars that didn't make the cut to the sequel; players have been asking for these classes to return since launch, so it would make sense to try and include them, especially since there's a very strong chance this is the last set of elite specs we'll ever get.
So, which old classes do each of these icons belong to? We'll get to the lute in a bit, but let's focus on the helmet and the weird orb thing first. While the helmet of the second icon is very similar to the design of the core Warrior icon, it also shares some similarities with the icon for the Paragon class from Guild Wars—namely the wings and the pointed chin. Similarly, the third icon is very reminiscent of the Ritualist icon, consisting of two sickle shapes around an orb and both looking similar to an eye. They aren't an exact match—the new icon's sickles are flattened on one end—but the similarities are hard to deny.
There's one other piece of evidence which could potentially support the idea of Paragon being added, and of it specifically being a Warrior spec. Paragons were known to use spears as projectiles, and in lore they were heavily associated with the Sunspears. Similarly, Warrior's land spear moveset is largely ranged, and it's fourth skill is named "Spearmarshal's Support", a direct reference to the Sunspears. If the team do want to bring Paragon back, a good chunk of its moveset was already implemented in JaWi.
 |
| Yes, that's the best quality this screenshot is available in, apparently. |
As for the lute, there isn't a Guild Wars class that matches it, but there is a potential inspiration: the Minstrel. It was one of several fake classes created for an April Fools prank way back; you're much more likely to remember one of its cousins, the Commando.
If the theme of these specs truly is bringing back old classes, the Minstrel could be the basis for this new bard spec. Alternatively, it's also entirely possible that they have no connection. Bards are a fantasy staple, and an archetype that players have been asking for for years. There aren't enough old classes to fill nine elite specs, so perhaps the holes will be filled with missing fantasy archetypes like bards and such instead.
Edit: I was originally unable to find good evidence of the Minstrel on the wiki, but u/Kossage in the Reddit comments made an excellent write-up which includes some proof of the Minstrel's existence. They also went to the effort to update the wiki with additional citations for the Minstrel, so shout-out to them for the good work!
It should be noted that the content they found regarding the Minstrel specifically associates it with Mesmers, potentially lending credence to the idea that this new bard spec will be a Mesmer.
Speaking of other missing classes, what other possibilities are there? The original Guild Wars had five classes which didn't get carried over into GW2: Monks, Assassins, Ritualists, Paragons, and Dervishes. We've already discussed how the existing teasers could be Paragons and Ritualists, but what are the other class's chances of being implemented?
The Dervish fares by far the best among the old classes. It's a fan favorite and has some rather unique abilities, in particular its use of scythes as a weapon. While I doubt we'd get scythes as an entirely new weapon type, they could simply grant the spec some unique skills that conjure a magical scythe, or something of the like.
Moving down the list, next is the Assassin. These dagger-wielding rogues used stealth and shadow magic; much of their moveset was adapted into the Thief in GW2, so it could potentially work as a Thief spec. I'm not sure exactly how it would be differentiated from other Thief specs, but perhaps it could focus on the Assassin's Hex skills?
Last on the list is the Monk. In Guild Wars, they use holy prayers to heal and protect themselves and allies and to smite their foes. As the game's primary support class, it's obvious to see why they weren't carried over to GW2; their design clashes against GW2's attempt to eliminate the holy trinity of DPS, Tank, and Healer. I only really see them coming back as an elite spec if ANet are leaning very heavily into the "bring back old classes" theme, and I struggle to see how they'd effectively implement the Monk without heavily altering its original flavor and skillset.
Of course, those old classes only account for five slots, while we need nine elite specs. If the bard class is actually inspired by the Minstrle, it's possible we could see specs based on other April Fools classes, such as the Commando or Shadowmancer; more likely, the remaining specs would be used to fill out fantasy archetypes not represented by GW2's class lineup, such as bards, classic wizards, alchemists, samurai, etc.
Stat Combos
I have pointed out the similarities between the second teaser icon and the Paragon icon from Guild Wars, but that's not the only thing it resembles. The icon very strongly evokes typical depictions of a Valkyrie's helmet, potentially implying this is actually meant to be a Valkyrie spec. If we then assume the lute is for a spec called the Minstrel, you may start to notice a pattern: these are both the names of stat prefixes that exist in-game.
If the stat prefixes we use in-game are even slightly diegetic, it would make sense to assume that most of the names used refer to types of fighters that actually exist in the world. It's possible that the theme of this set of elite specs is actually representing some of those prefixes to show what the Guild Wars interpretation of classic tropes like bards or Valkyries are.
There is one stumbling point for this theory: the third icon. It's a rather vague shape that doesn't immediately jump out as representing any prefix. I have seen it suggested that it could be "celestial", but I'm not entirely confident in that idea. This is a theory whose reliability will rely heavily on the fourth teaser's contents, but I think it's one worth being aware of.
Finally, a Secret Hint
Earlier on, I promised to show you some super secret hints that might help with further speculation around the new elite specs. I must preface this by saying this is secondhand information and should absolutely be taken with a grain of salt until its reliability can be verified. This goes double because I don't speak Chinese.
That's right—these additional hints come from ANet's Chinese social media accounts, which is why most of you probably haven't heard about them. The image above is one I cobbled together from screenshots provided in the Guild Wars 2 Discord server by one of its mods. According to these screenshots, each teaser is accompanied by a short poem over on Chinese social media.
The poem for the first teaser, the lute, is roughly translated as "Life floats by, my heart drifts with the clouds." As far as I can tell, this doesn't tell us much more about the bard spec; this quote sounds like something a happy-go-lucky bard might stereotypically say.
The poem for the second teaser, the helmet, is roughly translated as "Armor turns into feathers, mountains turn into sword blades." The mention of feathers, and of armor transforming into them, could lend additional credence to the idea of this being a Valkyrie spec. Perhaps it will have a mechanic where it trades defenses to grow wings and gain extra mobility?
Finally, the poem for the third teaser, the orb and horns, is roughly translated as "Silver flows in a thousand shapes, summon shadow shaping attack." This translation seems to be the roughest of the three, and the poem itself also seems to be the most cryptic. The mention of silver, when combined with the strange icon, makes me think of quicksilver, which could potentially imply this is an Engineer spec? I honestly don't have any strong conclusions based on this one; I'd be interested to hear others' interpretations.
I'd like to reiterate that this is secondhand information and should be taken with a grain of salt. I don't have access to Chinese servers, so I can't exactly verify myself if these screenshots are real or not.
Conclusion
I believe it is all but confirmed that the icons being teased to us belong to a new set of elite specs. Assuming we get another teaser every weekday from now on, that will give the team exactly enough time to reveal the remaining six. While many other potential ideas have been posed for what the icons could be, these range from impossible to very unlikely; I believe some parts of the community have gotten so entrenched in their own ideas that they're simply disregarding the most likely solution.
In any case, we will likely receive more teasers next week; some idea will gain more support, while many others will be outright disproven. Speculation can be incredibly fun, but it's important to remember that the official announcement is coming very soon on the 15th; we ought to temper our expectations as we await that news. Raising expectations to the impossible will only end with us being disappointed.
I'm interested to hear if there are any other theories or ideas as to the identities of the (presumed) new elite specs, or if you all have any other theories regarding the upcoming expansion. I'm looking forward to the community discussion, and to another week of speculation before ANet mercilessly proves us all wrong on the 15th.
Comments
Post a Comment